Our Methodology

IntelliPickz ingests player prop and game line odds from 6+ sportsbooks and prediction markets, including Kalshi, Polymarket, DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, PrizePicks, Underdog Fantasy, and Fliff. Odds are refreshed every 15 minutes, and each refresh is stored so line movement can be tracked over time. Game and player data is sourced from official sports APIs and verified sportsbook feeds.

Expected value (EV) is calculated by comparing sportsbook lines against statistical projections built from historical performance data. When a book's implied probability for an outcome is lower than the projection suggests, the offer is flagged as positive EV. The projection inputs are the player's own game logs, hit rates, and matchup data, not a black box, and not anyone's picks.

Hit rates measure how often a player has cleared a line over a configurable window: the last 5, 10, or 20 games. The window matters, because a 70% hit rate over 20 games says something different than 70% over 5, so we show the window next to the number everywhere it appears.

Streak detection runs automatically after every odds refresh. When a player has consecutively gone over or under a prop line across recent games, the current streak count is surfaced on the offer.

Opposition rankings grade how well opposing teams defend specific stat categories, based on season-long defensive statistics. A defense ranked near the bottom of the league in a category signals a favorable matchup for the over; a top-ranked defense signals a tough one.

Projections are estimates, not predictions. Past performance does not guarantee future outcomes, and a positive EV label means an offer looks mispriced against our model, not that the bet will win. Lines move constantly; an edge that existed at the last 15-minute refresh may be gone by the time you look, so always compare timestamps before acting on a number. Injuries, lineup changes, and news can invalidate a projection faster than any model updates. Nothing on IntelliPickz is betting advice.